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Economic analysis — Part II of the Antitrust DiptychPower, Identity, ResistanceUpdated March 2026IO economics + doctrinal synthesis
The Antitrust Diptych
Part 1: KhanPart 2: Amex

Part II of II

Ohio v. American Express

The economics of two-sided markets — and the Supreme Court decision that reshaped how antitrust law sees platforms.

Ohio v. American Express Co., 585 U.S. 529 (2018). Supreme Court Opinion.

Can a company charge higher prices on one side of a market if it delivers more value on the other — and should antitrust law care?

01

Key Numbers

5–4
Decision
Thomas majority, Breyer dissent
26.4%
Amex market share
By transaction volume at time of suit
20
Price increases
Merchant fees raised 20 times in 5 years
7 wks
Trial length
Bench trial before Judge Garaufis, E.D.N.Y.
02

What Is a Two-Sided Market?

In 2003, Jean-Charles Rochet and Jean Tirole formalized what the credit card industry had long understood: some markets have two distinct groups of customers who need each other, connected by a platform.[1] Credit cards need merchants to accept them and cardholders to carry them. Neither side has value without the other. This creates indirect network effects — more merchants accepting a card makes it more valuable to cardholders, and more cardholders makes merchants more willing to accept the card.

The critical economic insight: in two-sided markets, the price structure matters as much as the price level. A platform can raise fees on one side and use the revenue to subsidize the other, growing the network overall even if one side pays more. Rochet and Tirole called this "price structure non-neutrality" — a platform's optimal strategy is almost never to charge both sides equally.

This is the economic theory that American Express rode to the Supreme Court. If merchant fees and cardholder rewards are two sides of one coin, then you cannot evaluate one side in isolation. Raising merchant fees is not anticompetitive if the revenue funds rewards that grow the network.

Figure 1 — Interactive

Two-Sided Market Simulator

MerchantsPay 2.5% per txnCost centerPlatformNet margin: 1.0%ProfitableIndirect network effectsCardholdersEarn 1.5% rewardsValue centerfees →← rewardsTransaction volumeTransaction volume: 55% of max55%Bork test (consumer welfare)No harmPrices fell for cardholders → no antitrust issueKhan test (structural)Structural concernMerchants can't steer → competitive process degraded

Drag the sliders to see how fee allocation changes platform economics. The core insight from Rochet and Tirole (2003): the total price level matters less than the price structure. A platform can raise merchant fees and use the revenue to subsidize cardholders, growing the network while harming one side. The Bork test sees no harm because cardholders benefit. The structural test sees a merchant market where competition is suppressed.

03

The Anti-Steering Trap

American Express's non-discrimination provisions (NDPs) were the conduct at issue. Merchants who accepted Amex were contractually prohibited from steering customers toward cheaper card networks at the point of sale. A merchant could not say "We prefer Visa" or offer a discount for using a lower-fee card — even though Amex's interchange fees were substantially higher than Visa's or Mastercard's.[2]

The anti-steering rules created what economists call a "competitive externality." Discover, which charged lower fees, could not gain market share because merchants were forbidden from communicating the price difference. The price signal — the mechanism through which competition normally works — was contractually suppressed. Visa and Mastercard settled with the DOJ and dropped their NDPs. Amex refused.

Figure 2

The Anti-Steering Trap at Checkout

Customer at checkoutPulls out Amex cardMerchant stays silent → Amex collects 2.5%+ feeMerchant says nothingAmex runs at 2.5%+ fee→ Amex winsMerchant suggests Visa → BLOCKED by NDP contractSteers to VisaBLOCKED by NDPContract violationCash discount is technically allowed but rarely usedOffers cash discountTechnically allowedRarely effectiveThe Discover problemDiscover charged lower fees but couldn't gain share — merchants couldn't tell customers it was cheaper.Anti-steering rules neutralized the price signal that would have rewarded the low-cost competitor.

Non-discrimination provisions (NDPs) prohibited merchants from expressing a preference for any card network at the point of sale. A merchant who accepted Amex could not suggest the customer use Visa instead, even though Visa charged lower fees. The dissent argued this suppressed the price signal that drives interbrand competition. The majority said it preserved platform investment incentives.

04

Case Timeline

The DOJ filed suit in October 2010 alongside 17 state attorneys general. Visa and Mastercard settled almost immediately, agreeing to drop their anti-steering rules. American Express fought through eight years of litigation, from the Eastern District of New York to the Supreme Court.[3]

The case took a decisive turn in June 2017 when the Trump DOJ switched sides and filed a brief supporting American Express. Ohio stepped in to lead the petitioners. The 5–4 decision, handed down in June 2018, split along ideological lines — with Justice Kennedy providing the decisive fifth vote in one of his final opinions.

Figure 3

Case Timeline: DOJ Suit Through Supreme Court, 2010-2018

20102012201420162018Oct 2010: DOJ files suit — DOJ and 17 state AGs challenge Amex anti-steering rulesDOJ files suitOct 2010Oct 2010: Visa & MC settle — Proposed consent decrees filed same day as complaint. Amex fights onVisa & MC settleOct 2010Feb 2015: District Court for DOJ — Judge Garaufis: NDPs harm interbrand competition among networksDistrict Court for DOJFeb 2015Apr 2015: Injunction issued — Amex ordered to stop enforcing anti-steering provisionsInjunction issuedApr 2015Sep 2016: 2nd Circuit reverses — Panel: must analyze both sides of platform together. DOJ failed burden2nd Circuit reversesSep 2016Jan 2017: Rehearing denied — Full 2nd Circuit declines en banc reviewRehearing deniedJan 2017Jun 2017: DOJ drops out — Trump DOJ switches sides, supports Amex. Ohio leads petitionersDOJ drops outJun 2017Feb 2018: Oral arguments — Supreme Court hears Ohio v. American ExpressOral argumentsFeb 2018Jun 2018: 5–4 for Amex — Thomas majority: two-sided transaction platform is one market5–4 for AmexJun 2018DOJ winningAmex winningNeutral

The DOJ won at trial after a seven-week bench hearing, but the 2nd Circuit reversed. When the Trump administration switched sides, Ohio stepped in to lead the Supreme Court petition. The 5-4 decision, with Thomas writing for the majority and Breyer in dissent, turned on whether a credit card network is one market or two.

05

The Court's Market Definition

Everything turned on market definition. Justice Thomas, writing for the majority, held that credit card networks are "two-sided transaction platforms" — a category he distinguished from two-sided non-transaction platforms like newspapers or shopping malls. Because every credit card transaction inherently requires both a merchant and a cardholder, the relevant market is the transaction itself, not either side independently.

The practical consequence: to prove antitrust harm, the government had to show that Amex's anti-steering rules produced net harm across both sides of the platform. Showing that merchants paid higher fees was insufficient unless the government also proved that cardholder benefits did not offset the harm. The government had not attempted this proof, so the case was over.

Figure 4 — Interactive

How You Define the Market Determines the Outcome

Toggle View

Majority vs. dissent market framing

ONE MARKET: Credit Card TransactionsMerchants: pay interchange fees, accept card networks. In the single-market view, their costs are weighed against cardholder benefits.MerchantsPay interchange feesAccept card networksCardholders: receive rewards, choose which card to use. Their benefits may offset merchant costs under the single-market framework.CardholdersReceive rewardsChoose which card to useinseparableMajority verdict: plaintiffs must demonstrate net harm across both merchants and cardholders to prevail.Verdict: Must show net harm across BOTH sides

Toggle to see the two competing market definitions. The majority held that credit card transactions are a single market because every transaction requires both a merchant and a cardholder. The dissent argued these are two distinct markets connected by a platform, and that requiring net-harm proof across both sides effectively immunizes platforms from antitrust scrutiny.

06

Breyer's Dissent

"Two-sided transaction platform" is not a term found in antitrust law, and the majority's reasoning threatens to create a loophole large enough to swallow whole categories of anticompetitive conduct.

— Justice Breyer, dissenting, joined by Ginsburg, Sotomayor, Kagan

Breyer's dissent was unusually sharp. He argued the majority invented a new economic category with no basis in antitrust precedent, then used it to impose an evidentiary burden so high that no plaintiff could meet it. The table below shows the five key points of disagreement.[4]

Question
Majority (Thomas)
Dissent (Breyer)
One market or two?
Transaction platform is one market. Cannot analyze merchant side without cardholder side.
Merchants and cardholders are distinct markets linked by a platform. Antitrust has always analyzed them separately.
What must plaintiff prove?
Must show net harm across both sides. Higher merchant fees alone insufficient.
Showing harm on one side should shift burden to defendant to prove offsetting benefits.
Market power evidence?
26.4% share with no price increase doesn’t prove market power.
Amex raised prices 20 times without losing merchants. That is market power by definition.
Anti-steering rules?
NDPs maintain platform investment incentives. Removing them could destabilize rewards ecosystem.
NDPs suppress the price signal that drives competition. Merchants cannot inform consumers about cheaper options.
Trial record?
District court applied wrong framework. Proper two-sided analysis would have changed the outcome.
Seven-week trial produced extensive factual findings. Majority substitutes its own economic theory for trial evidence.
07

The Aftermath

Every major platform antitrust case since 2018 has had to contend with Ohio v. Amex. The decision gave platform defendants a powerful shield: argue that you operate a two-sided market, then challenge plaintiffs to prove net harm across both sides. Some courts have accepted the framing. Others have pushed back.

Epic v. Apple2021 · App StoreAmex invoked
Epic v. Google2023 · Play StoreAmex invoked
DOJ v. Google (Ad Tech)2024 · Ad exchangeAmex invoked
FTC v. Amazon2023 · MarketplaceAmex invoked

The Amex framework has become the first move in every platform defense playbook. Its staying power depends on whether courts distinguish "transaction platforms" (credit cards) from "non-transaction platforms" (app stores, search engines, marketplaces) — a distinction the majority introduced but left undeveloped.

08

The Mirror

Khan published her paper in January 2017. The Supreme Court decided Ohio v. Amex in June 2018. Read together, they form a complete picture: Khan identified the problem (the consumer welfare standard cannot see platform power), and the Court demonstrated it (a platform raised merchant fees 20 times and the law said it was fine). The dissent essentially wrote Khan's argument into Supreme Court jurisprudence — but lost 5–4.[5]

Khan's Claim (2017)

The consumer welfare standard cannot see platform monopoly power because it looks only at price effects on one side. Platforms exploit this blind spot to accumulate structural dominance while the law sees efficiency.

The Court's Ruling (2018)

Platform conduct must be evaluated across both sides simultaneously. Harm to merchants is irrelevant unless the government proves net harm to the entire transaction. Higher fees on one side may be pro-competitive if the other side benefits.

Back to Part I

Khan wrote the diagnosis. The Court issued the prognosis. Read Part I for the paper that started the argument the Court tried to close.

← Read Part I: Amazon's Antitrust Paradox
09

Sources

[1]Rochet, Jean-Charles, and Jean Tirole. "Platform Competition in Two-Sided Markets."Journal of the European Economic Association 1, no. 4 (2003): 990-1029. The foundational paper on two-sided market economics and price structure non-neutrality.
[2]Ohio v. American Express Co., 585 U.S. 529 (2018).Full opinion including Thomas majority and Breyer dissent. Anti-steering provisions and market definition analysis.
[3]Ohio v. American Express Co. — case history and procedural background.DOJ suit filed October 2010. District court ruling February 2015. 2nd Circuit reversal September 2016. Supreme Court 5-4 June 2018.
[4]Cornell LII: Ohio v. American Express Co.Legal Information Institute case summary and analysis. Breyer's dissent on the invented "two-sided transaction platform" category.
[5]Salop, Steven C., et al. "Rebuilding Platform Antitrust."Antitrust Law Journal 84, no. 3 (2022). Framework for analyzing platform conduct post-Amex without collapsing two-sided markets into single-market analysis.

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